EGF Winning Statistics

The table shows statistics on winning a game with the opponent that is one (G+1), two (G+2), three (G+3) and four (G+4) grades stronger than the player whose strength is idicated in the first column. The data were collected from all events included in GoR tournament database.

  Winning Statistics - Even Games

          G + 1               G + 2               G + 3                G + 4

G     Nw    Ng    Pw      Nw    Ng    Pw      Nw    Ng    Pw      Nw    Ng    Pw
--- ------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------
20k   1758  5558   31.6   1199  4099   29.3    356  1702   20.9   217  1201   18.1
19k    931  2442   38.1    410  1329   30.9    141   564   25.0   106   436   24.3
18k   1200  2776   43.2    669  1767   37.9    355  1070   33.2    95   438   21.7
17k   1040  2394   43.4    793  1854   42.8    219   643   34.1   101   411   24.6
16k   1325  3005   44.1    630  1608   39.2    249   717   34.7   116   473   24.5
15k   1420  3372   42.1    761  1993   38.2    350   963   36.3   128   505   25.3
14k   1287  2899   44.4    763  1857   41.1    269   735   36.6   157   535   29.3
13k   1469  3223   45.6    703  1710   41.1    356   982   36.3   148   508   29.1
12k   1474  3313   44.5   1188  2774   42.8    351  1006   34.9   132   549   24.0
11k   1891  4130   45.8    906  2210   41.0    322   882   36.5   119   451   26.4
10k   2477  5574   44.4   1430  3568   40.1    435  1284   33.9   201   801   25.1
 9k   2644  5917   44.7   1276  3150   40.5    402  1246   32.3   141   722   19.5
 8k   2855  6475   44.1   1552  3941   39.4    403  1363   29.6   146   690   21.2
 7k   3065  6950   44.1   1540  3932   39.2    426  1339   31.8   142   727   19.5
 6k   3679  8430   43.6   1631  4193   38.9    448  1451   30.9   157   797   19.7
 5k   4038  9142   44.2   1834  4868   37.7    473  1665   28.4   210  1126   18.7
 4k   4022  9082   44.3   1768  4738   37.3    515  1897   27.1   178  1108   16.1
 3k   4237  9925   42.7   1847  5624   32.8    477  2086   22.9   104   979   10.6
 2k   4573 11390   40.1   1873  5768   32.5    342  1892   18.1   110  1050   10.5
 1k   5676 14113   40.2   1630  6008   27.1    483  3037   15.9   129  1571    8.2
 1d   4579 12543   36.5   1832  7473   24.5    475  3724   12.8   103  1860    5.5
 2d   3975 10913   36.4   1381  6061   22.8    374  2967   12.6    49  1072    4.6
 3d   3293  9742   33.8   1249  6158   20.3    195  2454    7.9     4   376    1.1
 4d   2592  8089   32.0    638  4301   14.8     22   766    2.9
 5d   1413  5089   27.8     92  1304    7.1
 6d    263  1553   16.9

Number of games included in statistics: 561930

Legend: G       : declared grade
        Nw      : number of wins
        Ng      : number of games
        Pw      : percentage of wins of the weak player
        G + <n> : games vs opponents stronger by <n> stones

An important thing to note here is that these statistics are inherently unreliable!

Because we use the McMahon system so much, there is a strong sorting effect at work in these statistics. If, for example, a 1k plays against a 2d, then in a McMahon tournament the 1k has already won two more games than the 2d. So probably it is a strong 1k against a weak 2d. This effect inflates all these numbers significantly.

The only area where this effect does not apply is at the top, because players that are above the top bar in a tournament will play each other regardless of their rank, as they start with the same McMahon score. This effect is very noticeable in the table above, where the percentages suddenly start dropping significantly among (stronger) dan players.

EDIT: Other effect at work that bias these statistics:

7D and 6D have been used in the past for professional players or very strong Asian amateurs, who might be two or three stones stronger than the average European amateur 6D and 7D players
20K is the lowest rank accepted by the database, and also contains the results of players 21K and weaker.

The most reliable statistics are probably those between players in the range 2D-5D, where the players are almost guaranteed to be above the bar, but without interference from the above effect of strong Asian amateurs, so that either effect has a relatively small impact.

[edit]

EGF Winning Statistics

See also