Current statistics? [#663]
188.8.131.52: Current statistics?
(2006-10-12 15:26) [#2264]
Does anyone have a recent statistic on the win ratio in professional games using 6.5 komi?
184.108.40.206: Re: Current statistics?
(2006-10-12 19:32) [#2270]
John F. From my forthcoming paper at ICOB4:
"In September 2005, the Nihon Ki-in carried out a survey of 1,042 completed games at the new 6.5 komi. It found that Black had won 50.51% and White 49.49%. This was the nearest to parity ever achieved. The equivalent figures in the Nihon Ki-in's last survey under 5.5 komi showed Black won 52.42%."
: Ing rules?
(2006-10-12 21:16) [#2273]
Is there data on Ing rules komi (effectively 7.5) that is reliable?
220.127.116.11: Strange numbers
(2006-10-13 04:19) [#2274]
That's strange: If black won 526 of the 1042 games, it would be 50.48%, if he won 527 it would be 50.58%. Since the survey only includes completed games, and they can't be jigo nor mushoubu (because the numbers for black and white add up to 100%), each covered game can only have one of two results (black won, or lost). How is the 50.51% calculated?
This small thing aside, we see that a bigger N would be really nice. Assuming white had only won 5 games more of these 1042, parity would be almost perfect. Also, I believe that professionals have to adjust their play during the transition period, so games from the start of the 6.5 era are a bit less reliable.
In conclusion, we will most likely have to collect data for a few years more. However, the current data implies that 6.5 komi can't be far off.