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Does anyone have a recent statistic on the win ratio in professional games using 6.5 komi?
John F. From my forthcoming paper at ICOB4:
"In September 2005, the Nihon Ki-in carried out a survey of 1,042 completed games at the new 6.5 komi. It found that Black had won 50.51% and White 49.49%. This was the nearest to parity ever achieved. The equivalent figures in the Nihon Ki-in's last survey under 5.5 komi showed Black won 52.42%."
Is there data on Ing rules komi (effectively 7.5) that is reliable?
That's strange: If black won 526 of the 1042 games, it would be 50.48%, if he won 527 it would be 50.58%. Since the survey only includes completed games, and they can't be jigo nor mushoubu (because the numbers for black and white add up to 100%), each covered game can only have one of two results (black won, or lost). How is the 50.51% calculated?
This small thing aside, we see that a bigger N would be really nice. Assuming white had only won 5 games more of these 1042, parity would be almost perfect. Also, I believe that professionals have to adjust their play during the transition period, so games from the start of the 6.5 era are a bit less reliable.
In conclusion, we will most likely have to collect data for a few years more. However, the current data implies that 6.5 komi can't be far off.