9x9 BayesElo ratings

xela: I was curious about the /9x9GrandSlam idea, but instead of a synthetic tournament, I'd like to try a different analysis method. I converted the Minigo game list into a text file, so that I could feed the 684 games that have results into Rémi Coulom's BayesElo software. Note that this is not good science! It's just for fun. The BayesElo ratings assume that players' strengths are constant throughout the 16 year period that the games were played, and that all games were played under the same conditions. Of course both these assumptions are not quite right.

The result is that the top 5 players are people who only played a relatively small number of games, so their Elo ratings are only accurate to within +/- 200. At number 6, with 56 games and an 80% win/loss rate, is Yamada Kimio. So perhaps he is the strongest at 9x9, or perhaps Cho Chikun is stronger, there aren't enough games to decide either way for sure.

Full results:

Rank Name                   Elo    +    - games score oppo. draws
   1 Cho Chikun            2373  338  211    11   91%  2081    0%
   2 Wang Qun              2355  572  306     3  100%  2125    0%
   3 Suzuki Keiji          2340  477  262     5  100%  2067    0%
   4 Takemiya Masaki       2284  209  180    12   67%  2184    0%
   5 Ma Xiaochun           2283  265  193    11   82%  2082    0%
   6 Yamada Kimio          2238  107   94    56   80%  2028    0%
   7 Kurahashi Masayuki    2211   98   91    55   71%  2061    0%
   8 Ishida Yoshio         2204  199  188    12   58%  2149    0%
   9 Iguchi Hideichiro     2197  385  385     2   50%  2197    0%
  10 Yuki Satoshi          2197  100   91    42   81%  2031    0%
  11 Wang Jiankun          2196  376  314     3   67%  2126    0%
  12 Yata Naoki            2184  106   96    50   72%  2033    0%
  13 Okada Yumiko          2175  356  278     4   75%  2062    0%
  14 Yamazaki Yoshihiro    2155  571  331     2  100%  1978    0%
  15 Cho Hunhyun           2154  188  196    11   45%  2182    0%
  16 Ruan Yunsheng         2143  389  389     2   50%  2144    0%
  17 Den Isei              2133  252  238     7   57%  2092    0%
  18 Fang Tianfeng         2125  372  311     3   67%  2056    0%
  19 Yamada Takuji         2120  316  244     5   80%  1974    0%
  20 Shimojima Yohei       2104  355  302     3   67%  2039    0%
  21 Song Li               2104  292  249     6   67%  2014    0%
  22 Ishii Shinzo          2101  254  249     4   50%  2128    0%
  23 Yamada Wakio          2099  135  124    25   68%  2005    0%
  24 Inori Yoko            2091  186  176    12   58%  2040    0%
  25 Tanimura Yoshiyuki    2090  122  115    30   63%  2017    0%
  26 So Yokoku             2088  289  262     5   60%  2041    0%
  27 Yamada Noriyoshi      2088  134  127    28   61%  2017    0%
  28 Tsukuda Akiko         2087  197  185    12   58%  2036    0%
  29 Fujii Shuya           2084  225  198     9   67%  1996    0%
  30 Son Hideyo            2078  404  620     1    0%  2197    0%
  31 Ha Youngil            2078  404  620     1    0%  2197    0%
  32 Chin Kaei             2078  404  620     1    0%  2197    0%
  33 Iyama Yuta            2078  404  620     1    0%  2197    0%
  34 Hoshikawa Takumi      2078  404  620     1    0%  2197    0%
  35 Mannami Kana          2078  404  620     1    0%  2197    0%
  36 Suzuki Ayumi          2078  404  620     1    0%  2197    0%
  37 Aragaki Shun          2077  108  105    38   55%  2051    0%
  38 Sasaka Shiro          2076  104  100    43   58%  2024    0%
  39 Hane Naoki            2060  298  234     5   80%  1941    0%
  40 Kudo Norio            2054  198  274    10   20%  2238    0%
  41 Hasegawa Hiro         2053  181  179    10   50%  2071    0%
  42 Ueki Yoshio           2049  131  125    27   59%  2000    0%
  43 Kato Yuki             2046  361  304     3   67%  1980    0%
  44 Cho Riyu              2043  277  252     5   60%  1998    0%
  45 Saito Tadashi         2025  117  116    33   52%  2018    0%
  46 Kim Pyonmin           2023  182  178    13   54%  2005    0%
  47 Goto Shungo           2020  171  171    14   50%  2031    0%
  48 Ishida Atsushi        2020  102  101    44   50%  2024    0%
  49 Takagi Shoichi        2015  397  395     2   50%  2026    0%
  50 Oya Koichi            2015  397  395     2   50%  2026    0%
  51 Yamada Shiho          2012  124  123    30   50%  2020    0%
  52 Takei Takashi         2011  164  153    15   60%  1968    0%
  53 Oda Hiromitsu         2003  152  156    17   47%  2023    0%
  54 Sano Takatsugu        2002  125  126    26   50%  2010    0%
  55 Enda Hideki           2002  121  122    30   47%  2033    0%
  56 Kubo Hideo            1999  378  531     1    0%  2101    0%
  57 Iwamaru Taira         1998  246  229     5   60%  1972    0%
  58 Yanaka Katsunori      1997  144  139    20   55%  1966    0%
  59 Furuta Naoyoshi       1990  209  216     9   44%  2022    0%
  60 Yokota Shigeaki       1988  264  264     4   50%  1989    0%
  61 Araki Issei           1983  142  142    20   50%  1991    0%
  62 Cho U                 1982  402  612     1    0%  2099    0%
  63 Ri Yo                 1975  190  204    10   40%  2034    0%
  64 Takabayashi Masahiro  1974  113  119    33   39%  2049    0%
  65 Imai Kazuhiro         1973  164  181    14   36%  2058    0%
  66 Kashiwabara Yasuto    1973  403  615     1    0%  2090    0%
  67 Chinen Kaori          1971  358  358     2   50%  1969    0%
  68 Shigeno Yuki          1971  344  608     2    0%  2164    0%
  69 Hayashi Kozo          1969  123  127    27   44%  2008    0%
  70 Konishi Kazuko        1965  136  147    22   36%  2054    0%
  71 Yanagawa Hiromasa     1963  113  116    35   43%  2019    0%
  72 Ko Reibun             1960  339  601     2    0%  2148    0%
  73 Okada Shinichiro      1959  404  618     1    0%  2077    0%
  74 Yamamoto Kentaro      1959  174  181    12   42%  1998    0%
  75 Nakamura Shinya       1958  168  175    15   47%  1989    0%
  76 Yukawa Mitsuhisa      1956  212  220     9   44%  2003    0%
  77 Yoshida Shoji         1954  192  213    11   36%  2044    0%
  78 Kageyama Toshiyuki    1950  128  129    23   48%  1974    0%
  79 Umezawa Yukari        1940  395  585     1    0%  2053    0%
  80 Kitano Ryo            1940  146  158    19   37%  2023    0%
  81 Takanashi Seiken      1939  274  348     4   25%  2057    0%
  82 Izumo Tetsuya         1933  171  187    13   38%  2002    0%
  83 Takiguchi Masaki      1930  383  383     2   50%  1930    0%
  84 Yamanouchi Masaki     1926  248  249     6   50%  1929    0%
  85 Minematsu Masaki      1925  128  139    26   35%  2032    0%
  86 Sasaki Tsuyoshi       1922  255  342     5   20%  2078    0%
  87 Yashiro Kumiko        1914  305  359     3   33%  1979    0%
  88 Hashiguchi Mika       1906  241  285     6   33%  1995    0%
  89 Tsuda Kae             1902  357  602     2    0%  2110    0%
  90 Catalin Taranu        1896  399  599     1    0%  2011    0%
  91 Ashida Isoko          1893  383  548     1    0%  1998    0%
  92 Mizuno Hiromi         1887  275  362     4   25%  2003    0%
  93 Enda Yoichi           1887  134  151    24   29%  2029    0%
  94 Nakano Yasuhiro       1886  169  198    14   29%  2023    0%
  95 Fujiwara Katsuya      1878  334  580     2    0%  2059    0%
  96 Sakakibara Fumiko     1873  144  156    20   35%  1981    0%
  97 Tanaka Hideharu       1871  168  181    13   38%  1947    0%
  98 Kiyonari Tetsuya      1867  276  360     4   25%  1987    0%
  99 Tanimura Kuniko       1866  276  358     4   25%  1982    0%
 100 Tafu Kae              1865  324  533     2    0%  2031    0%
 101 Shiraishi Kyoko       1861  201  258     9   22%  2021    0%
 102 Furuya Yutaka         1855  202  268     7   14%  2018    0%
 103 Mitsunaga Junzo       1833  402  609     1    0%  1950    0%
 104 Xu Rongxin            1824  306  587     3    0%  2056    0%
 105 Honda Goro            1824  219  332     9   11%  2083    0%
 106 Sumi Shinsuke         1822  200  269    10   20%  2013    0%
 107 Yahata Koichi         1820  177  247    14   14%  2057    0%
 108 Tanaka Chieko         1809  213  324    10   10%  2087    0%
 109 Kirimoto Kazuo        1803  221  317     8   13%  2033    0%
 110 Sekiyama Toshimichi   1784  188  257    12   17%  2004    0%
 111 Yoshida Mika          1769  342  580     2    0%  1960    0%
 112 Kori Toshio           1750  276  342     4   25%  1875    0%
 113 Maeda Ryo             1744  277  541     5    0%  2051    0%
 114 Sakakibara Masateru   1742  260  545     7    0%  2093    0%
 115 Konno Tameto          1723  289  559     4    0%  1994    0%
 116 Katsuma Shiro         1669  285  483     4    0%  1938    0%

To use BayesElo, you need to convert the result list to PGN format. The first five lines of the PGN file look like this:

[Black "Aragaki Shun"][White "Kurahashi Masayuki"][Result "1-0"] 1-0
[Black "Den Isei"][White "Kurahashi Masayuki"][Result "0-1"] 0-1
[Black "Oda Hiromitsu"][White "Den Isei"][Result "1-0"] 1-0
[Black "Ueki Yoshio"][White "Den Isei"][Result "0-1"] 0-1
[Black "Hayashi Kozo"][White "Ueki Yoshio"][Result "1-0"] 1-0

Then you use the following commands in BayesElo (settings recommended in a forum post by Coulom, sorry I don't have the link to hand):

readpgn gamelist.pgn
elo
offset 2000
advantage 0
drawelo 0.01
mm
exactdist
ratings

Monteo Interesting analysis. Today we can see who among them is the strongest 9x9 player, by using AI with the strongest neural net. I compared the performance of Cho Chikun, Yamada Kimio, and Go Seigen, by using AlphaGo Zero performance benchmarking method with an AI that plays 9x9 Go at a superhuman level for any komi and any board sizes. Among the three players when having Black, Cho Chikun is closest to the vicinity of Go divine.

Initial results:

Rank Name                  %Best Move   %Performance benchmarking
   1 Cho Chikun            33.33        -56
   2 Go Seigen             24.52        -70
   3 Yamada Kimio          33.33        -210

WGA: I think Yuki Satoshi 9p is probably the strongest player in the above list, based on the game results at 9 Dan Big Matches