EGF Winning Statistics

   

The table shows statistics on winning a game with the opponent that is one (G+1), two (G+2), three (G+3) and four (G+4) grades stronger than the player whose strength is idicated in the first column. The data were collected from all events included in GoR tournament database.

           G + 1             G + 2             G + 3             G + 4
  G     Nw    Ng   Pw     Nw    Ng   Pw     Nw    Ng   Pw     Nw    Ng   Pw
 --- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
 20K   811  2455  33.0   543  1632  33.3   166   715  23.2    85   437  19.5
 19K   406  1040  39.0   158   526  30.0    69   237  29.1    31   164  18.9
 18K   543  1286  42.2   267   695  38.4   146   407  35.9    37   160  23.1
 17K   481  1065  45.2   373   830  44.9    99   266  37.2    38   184  20.7
 16K   625  1359  46.0   278   659  42.2    86   284  30.3    46   198  23.2
 15K   637  1501  42.4   354   854  41.5   147   393  37.4    57   197  28.9
 14K   582  1288  45.2   305   770  39.6    97   278  34.9    69   254  27.2
 13K   631  1424  44.3   340   774  43.9   167   408  40.9    57   191  29.8
 12K   684  1505  45.4   531  1244  42.7   157   373  42.1    45   217  20.7
 11K   899  1916  46.9   388   952  40.8   114   318  35.8    43   178  24.2
 10K  1176  2623  44.8   568  1410  40.3   135   501  26.9    87   356  24.4
  9K  1186  2638  45.0   567  1351  42.0   162   498  32.5    52   277  18.8
  8K  1260  2845  44.3   637  1636  38.9   152   504  30.2    61   282  21.6
  7K  1474  3298  44.7   660  1718  38.4   157   510  30.8    60   271  22.1
  6K  1725  4036  42.7   753  1892  39.8   207   640  32.3    75   350  21.4
  5K  1989  4461  44.6   918  2355  39.0   188   689  27.3    89   454  19.6
  4K  2279  5041  45.2   913  2327  39.2   216   806  26.8    68   418  16.3
  3K  2430  5660  42.9   938  2859  32.8   184   848  21.7    52   387  13.4
  2K  2583  6354  40.7   852  2692  31.6   135   780  17.3    39   421   9.3
  1K  3117  7884  39.5   750  2951  25.4   196  1302  15.1    53   627   8.5
  1D  2780  7399  37.6   930  3752  24.8   237  1657  14.3    46   860   5.3
  2D  2199  6357  34.6   722  3164  22.8   162  1405  11.5    20   544   3.7
  3D  2051  5928  34.6   715  3556  20.1   118  1511   7.8     1   159   0.6
  4D  1469  4807  30.6   355  2661  13.3    10   303   3.3     0     0    -
  5D   914  3287  27.8    35   559   6.3     0     0    -      0     0    -
  6D   103   694  14.8     0     0    -      0     0    -      0     0    -
 Number of games included in statistics: 155189
 Notation: Nw - number of wins
           Ng - number of games
           Pw = Nw/Ng

An important thing to note here is that these statistics are inherently unreliable!

Because we use the McMahon system so much, there is a strong sorting effect at work in these statistics. If, for example, a 1k plays against a 2d, then in a McMahon tournament the 1k has already won two more games than the 2d. So probably it is a strong 1k against a weak 2d. This effect inflates all these numbers significantly.

The only area where this effect does not apply is at the top, because players that are above the top bar in a tournament will play each other regardless of their rank, as they start with the same McMahon score. This effect is very noticeable in the table above, where the percentages suddenly start dropping significantly among (stronger) dan players.

EDIT: Other effect at work that bias these statistics:

  • 7D and 6D have been used in the past for professional players or very strong Asian amateurs, who might be two or three stones stronger than the average European amateur 6D and 7D players
  • 20K is the lowest rank accepted by the database, and also contains the results of players 21K and weaker.

The most reliable statistics are probably those between players in the range 2D-5D, where the players are almost guaranteed to be above the bar, but without interference from the above effect of strong Asian amateurs, so that either effect has a relatively small impact.

See also

EGF Rating System


This is a copy of the living page "EGF Winning Statistics" at Sensei's Library.
(OC) 2011 the Authors, published under the OpenContent License V1.0.
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