3-5 point low approach/statistics

Search pattern  

I ran the search on the otherwise empty quadrant plus one extra line above and to the left. This minimizes but does not completely eliminate continuations that are directly based on the positions to the left or above.

Main continuations  

Numerically these are the top 11 continuations where Black plays next. Note that the search position occurs very frequently but that the players very often tenuki from here. Thus there is a big question of whether Black plays next (= a 5-3 point situation) or White plays next (= a 3-4 point situation). We will only look at the 11 plays for Black shown.

Statistics:

Note: read the following information as (in the case of the first line): Black plays at a in 86 cases (9 times immediately on the next move, otherwise with one or more plays in between), Black won 40.7% of the games in which this move was played while White won 54.7%. The remainder of 4.6% were cases with no winner = jigo, unfinished, result unknown, etc.

Ba:  86  (9), B40.7% - W54.7% three-space low pincer
Bb: 103 (16), B44.7% - W54.4% two-space high pincer
Bc: 202 (14), B39.1% - W56.4% two-space low pincer
Bd: 468 (85), B38.5% - W56.6% taisha
Be: 251 (33), B49.4% - W45.8% one-space low pincer
Bf: 301 (38), B53.5% - W44.9%
Bg:  43  (5), B41.9% - W55.8%
Bh: 355 (95), B45.1% - W49.0%
Bi: 381 (88), B42.0% - W52.0%
Bj: 316 (62), B41.8% - W50.0%
Bk:  56  (2), B42.9% - W53.6%

For me it is fascinating that only two of the continuations for Black have winning records (Black's winning percentage is higher than White's): the one-space low pincer at e and the knight's move at f. The actual experience for all other moves is that White wins more often than Black. In particular the taisha joseki (Black at d) has a very clear advantage for White with the best winning percentage in actual practice. Despite this, the taisha has been the most popular continuation by a fairly wide margin.

Speculating on why the results might be so poor for Black, we can see that playing 5-3 and letting White enter at the 3-4 point cedes the corner territory to White. Black does so in expectation of taking compensation on the outside. However, it seems that Black needs to pressure White if he is to gain sufficient compensation for the loss of the corner. Black does not seem to be able to do this consistently with simple extensions up the side or loose pincers. For her part White has the corner. If Black pincers, White chooses whether to sit tight in the corner or fight it out. Black can normally dictate matters on one side but can not easily do so on both sides simultaneously.

Alex Weldon: These statistics also do not tell the whole story. 4-3 is not the only approach to 3-5. 5-4 is also a common approach. Also, it's common that the 5-3 player will get another move in the corner and make a shimari. To judge whether 5-3 is a good move or not, you'd have to include the statistics from those and other (e.g. 3-3) possibilities. If the statistics for the opponent making the high (5-4) approach were favourable for the 5-3 player, for example, that would tell us that to make 5-3 effective, you have to arrange the situation so that the low approach is unfavourable for the opponent. Looking at these statistics alone, all we can say is that you don't want to play 5-3 if the opponent is going to be able to invade 3-4, unless you're planning on pressing or making a one-space low pincer.

The 5-3 results also tell the player who opens with 3-4 something. When the opponent approaches at the 5-3 point, think seriously about tenuki. The corner then converts into a 5-3 opening which is difficult for the opponent to exploit. Even better in a komoku - tenuki scenario, the opponent did not plan to play 5-3 to begin with and is suddenly confronted with the need to choose a continuation :-)

Bill That really does not follow. You need to compare the results of tenuki vs. local reply.

The fact that it does not follow does not mean that it isn't true. Tenuki is always an option.